Remember Gas Rationing? It Could be Coming Sooner than You Think!

I live about three blocks from HWY 1 in Aptos, Santa Cruz County, California. Starting about 6 am, there are between 100,000 and 200,000 daily commuters from the beaches of Santa Cruz County “over the hill” to Silicon Valley and San Jose. Depending upon the direction of the wind, the traffic noise can sometimes be right-on-top of you thunderous..

In California, the population in year 2003 totaled 36,363,502 individuals who owned 24 million registered cars and trucks. Each day Californians drive 825 million miles. This works out to 36 miles/day by the average driver and the combustion of 47 million gallons of fuel that generates 5.4 million pounds of pollutants daily.

Although experts disagree about the precise timing of when peak oil extraction will be reached, there is growing concern, driven by Royal Dutch Shell’s admission that it overstated reserves by 23%, that the peak limit could occur much sooner than oil companies have predicted in the past. Some say peak oil is imminent or will occur in the next few years.

In spite of the recognition of the eventuality of peak extraction, our dependency upon imported oil continues to increase.

The trend of increasing U.S. dependence on imported oil is expected to continue. Net imports, which accounted for 37 percent of total U.S. petroleum demand in 1980 and 53 percent in 2002, are expected to reach 70 percent in 2025. Petroleum demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent, from 20 million barrels per day in 2002 to 28 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the transportation sector, which is expected to account for 74 percent of petroleum demand in 2025.

"Transportation accounts for one third of all energy use and carbon emissions in the United States. The sector is 97 percent dependent on petroleum; cars and trucks consume two-thirds of all of the petroleum used in the country. In many urban areas, vehicles produce 50% or more of air pollution.”

Thanks to what I and many others consider an ill-conceived and botched public policy, I think that it is quite possible that the sounds of traffic on HWY 1 will be less annoying. We will be hearing waves breaking on the beach instead of SUVS enroute-- because most commuters will be stranded for lack of gas.

I base my concerns on the approach that the administration is taking with Iran and Iraq set within the context of ever increasing demands for petro fuel imports for China and India with a touch of Nigerian turmoil thrown into the pot.

Next I will share with you my thoughts about the growing relationship between Iran and Hugo Chavez and how one dumb move on our part and we will all end up riding bicycles to work.


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