Attacking Iran will Ruin Your Morning Commute!

We didn’t attack India, Pakistan or North Korea for breaking the rules and building their own nukes. But this administration is threatening an attack on Iran because they supposedly pose an imminent and dangerous threat to world peace.

And we all realize by now that our administration has proven itself dangerous and that it just might let loose an attack on Iranian enrichment facilities in pursuit of its neocon vision of strategic world domination. (Plus in their skewed thinking, it might divert attention from the “thousands of tactical errors” in Iraq). An attack on the widely dispersed nuclear facilities in Iran will likely kill thousands of civilians while solidifying worldwide resentment against America—and could possibly lead to WW III.

It will also play hell with the morning commute. I don’t have the time, inclinational or firepower to take on the political moral, social and legal consequences of a pre-emptive attack on Iran. My focus is on the 150,000 or so commuters heading over the hill everyday from Santa Cruz to Silicon Valley. Think of them as a metaphor for commuters everywhere.

What will happen when the gas stations run dry or are only open a few hours a day with prices rocketing above five bucks per gallon?—when you can get it! How about not being able to predict when you can fill up, calling stations and getting busy signals or a recording that says to check their website for the next shipment? What will happen to Santa Cruz commuters and the tech firms that they operate? What will happen to the US economy and our free transit-way of life?

And why do I think that the Air Force, Navy and Marines bombing the Hell of out Iran could lead to any of these doomsday outcomes?

First, Iran is the world’s fourth largest oil producer yielding about 3.75 million barrels of oil per day. Although we do not directly import Iranian crude because it is legally proscribed, Iranian exports of nearly 4 million barrels/day are a fairly sizeable chunk of the daily world crude oil consumption of the 76 million barrels/day.

Attacking Iran could reduce or eliminate their production entirely if 1) oil fields and facilities were damaged 2) the attacks resulted in internal turmoil within Iran 3) Iranian leaders decided to punish the US by embargo 4) Iran attacks oil tankers passing through the Straits of Hormuz 5) Iran attacks US warships using its new super-fast underwater missiles “flying boats” and top secret land to air missiles disrupting oil shipping. Any of these scenarios are possible.

Some of you may remember the Iranian oil embargo of 1973. I visited Honolulu at the time where the impacts were intensely felt and remember the hassle of planning a fill up. So an embargo might happen. After all is did once before. Iran might even launch a pre-emptive embargo just to give Americans a preview of the pain and suffering in store for commuters if we bomb(s) away.

Although Iran’s use of an embargo involves inherent internal risks because they are the only major oil exporter operating at a deficit, if sufficiently provoked or threatened they could be motivated to use their ace in the hole. Adding an unpredictability factor on when they cut and restore exports would be especially daunting to oil markets and traders.

The sad and frustrating part is that this could have all been avoided. Most of the world was behinds us after 9/11 and now most of the world is against us. Iran is emboldened by our botched occupation of Iraq. We not only eliminated Iran’s key enemies, Hussein and the Taliban, but we have unintentionally brought pro-Iranians to positions of leadership in Iraq.

Now Iran says let’s talk this out and the administration says no thanks but “all options are on the table—including military.”

The UN is hamstrung because of anti-US sentiment and the fact that Russian and China are sympathetic to Iran and will likely nix serious economic sanctions. Still Nobel Peace Prize winner General Mohammed ElBaradei persists in his efforts to negotiate a diplomatic solution and has asked both the US and Iran to tune down the rhetoric.

Does any of this sound familiar?

Next we throw thoughts about Hugo Chavez and Venezuela into the fray.


Commentary Main Page
Solar Metro Online Home

Remember Gas Rationing? It Could be Coming Sooner than You Think!

I live about three blocks from HWY 1 in Aptos, Santa Cruz County, California. Starting about 6 am, there are between 100,000 and 200,000 daily commuters from the beaches of Santa Cruz County “over the hill” to Silicon Valley and San Jose. Depending upon the direction of the wind, the traffic noise can sometimes be right-on-top of you thunderous..

In California, the population in year 2003 totaled 36,363,502 individuals who owned 24 million registered cars and trucks. Each day Californians drive 825 million miles. This works out to 36 miles/day by the average driver and the combustion of 47 million gallons of fuel that generates 5.4 million pounds of pollutants daily.

Although experts disagree about the precise timing of when peak oil extraction will be reached, there is growing concern, driven by Royal Dutch Shell’s admission that it overstated reserves by 23%, that the peak limit could occur much sooner than oil companies have predicted in the past. Some say peak oil is imminent or will occur in the next few years.

In spite of the recognition of the eventuality of peak extraction, our dependency upon imported oil continues to increase.

The trend of increasing U.S. dependence on imported oil is expected to continue. Net imports, which accounted for 37 percent of total U.S. petroleum demand in 1980 and 53 percent in 2002, are expected to reach 70 percent in 2025. Petroleum demand is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.6 percent, from 20 million barrels per day in 2002 to 28 million barrels per day in 2025, led by the transportation sector, which is expected to account for 74 percent of petroleum demand in 2025.

"Transportation accounts for one third of all energy use and carbon emissions in the United States. The sector is 97 percent dependent on petroleum; cars and trucks consume two-thirds of all of the petroleum used in the country. In many urban areas, vehicles produce 50% or more of air pollution.”

Thanks to what I and many others consider an ill-conceived and botched public policy, I think that it is quite possible that the sounds of traffic on HWY 1 will be less annoying. We will be hearing waves breaking on the beach instead of SUVS enroute-- because most commuters will be stranded for lack of gas.

I base my concerns on the approach that the administration is taking with Iran and Iraq set within the context of ever increasing demands for petro fuel imports for China and India with a touch of Nigerian turmoil thrown into the pot.

Next I will share with you my thoughts about the growing relationship between Iran and Hugo Chavez and how one dumb move on our part and we will all end up riding bicycles to work.


Commentary Main Page
Solar Metro Online Home

Global Warming: Be Worried, Be Very Worried

Jeffrey Kluger in his April 3, 2006 cover story in Time Magazine clearly and succinctly sounds the alarm about the immediacy of global warming (This link will take you to the article at Time’s website. If you are not a subscriber, you can still read the article by watching a short advertisement.)

Polar Ice Caps Are Melting Faster Than Ever... More And More Land Is Being Devastated By Drought... Rising Waters Are Drowning Low-Lying Communities... By Any Measure, Earth Is At ... The Tipping Point

Foot draggers and non-believers have routinely dsimissed global warming as something for future generations to deal with, the impacts would not be felt for decades or centuries. Kluger argues that we are already experiencing the impact of increased CO2 levels which are now at record levels now the hightest in 650,000 years.

“Never mind what you've heard about global warming as a slow-motion emergency that would take decades to play out. Suddenly and unexpectedly, the crisis is upon us.”

Kluger continues:

…glaciers, it turns out, can move with surprising speed, and so can nature. What few people reckoned on was that global climate systems are booby-trapped with tipping points and feedback loops, thresholds past which the slow creep of environmental decay gives way to sudden and self-perpetuating collapse.

He points out that Grennland ice is melting at a rate of 53 cubic miles per year, about 250 times the amount used by Los Angeles in a year. That sounds awfully immediate to me.


Commentary Main Page
Solar Metro Online Home